talkSPORT pundit Simon Jordan has candidly admitted that England's World Cup semi-final against Argentina on Tuesday evening carries personal stakes beyond the result itself — the outcome could completely dismantle a theory he's held for years about Gareth Southgate.
Jordan has long maintained that while Southgate built something meaningful with England, the former manager simply couldn't get the team over the line in matches against opponents of equal or superior quality. His belief is that a more tactically astute manager — someone like Thomas Tuchel — could provide the decisive edge in those coin-flip encounters.
The evidence supporting Jordan's stance stretches across four major tournaments under Southgate. Croatia knocked England out 2-1 in extra time at the 2018 World Cup. Italy defeated them on penalties in the Euro 2020 final at Wembley, though England did beat Germany en route to that showpiece. France eliminated the Three Lions at the quarter-final stage of the 2022 World Cup. And at Euro 2024, Spain proved far too strong in the final — after which Southgate resigned.
Now, with Tuchel at the helm and a genuine 50/50 contest against Argentina looming, Jordan acknowledges his entire argument hinges on what happens next.
Speaking on White and Jordan, he said: "I am optimistic. The only thing I am nervous about is having my entire theory debunked because the entire crux of my argument comes down to this evening. Everything I have ever said about the ideals behind Gareth Southgate's achievements, but with the necessity to get someone in with a winning mentality and can make big decisions in big games."
He added: "It will be underpinned or undermined by this very game. This is a 50/50 game, which we've not won. We haven't won games where the balance of probabilities is either equal or in favour of the opposition. We haven't won any of those, which has been the whole crux of my argument. So, my argument is going to either be validated or entirely debunked, and I am sure you would be very discreet about all of the things I've said over the years."
England have already overcome one enormous challenge in this tournament, defeating co-hosts Mexico 3-2 at a hostile Azteca Stadium while down to ten men, battling both the altitude and a ferocious home crowd. But as Jordan noted, it's difficult to argue Mexico possess the same player-for-player quality as England. Argentina, with Lionel Messi facing the Three Lions for the first time, represent a fundamentally different proposition.
Tuchel is arguably the strongest manager remaining in the competition, and Jordan remains bullish about England's chances — so much so that he's heading to Spain for a potential final.
"Why shouldn't I be? We are in a World Cup semi-final, and we've got good players," Jordan said. "We might not be a great team, but we've got good players. They aren't a great team either. It's a 50/50 game. England are more than capable of winning it."
He continued: "It feels like it's written because I am heading to Spain, so I will be surrounded by Spaniards, and I am going to be there when England are playing in the World Cup final. That is the superstitious side of me that thinks it's written."
Jordan also reflected on Saturday's quarter-final viewing experience: "Watching the game on Saturday was a chore because it was awful to watch. It was a crap game, and I am hoping that we have a good game this evening that gets people on the edge of their seats."
His scepticism about Southgate has been consistent for years. Back in 2022, before the World Cup, Jordan told Danny Murphy and Jim White: "If you are really being honest about it, he's done a decent job with England because he's had more luck than anyone. You are probably going to say luck is a commodity. Luck is great, but if it's your only commodity then it is going to run out in the end."
He added at the time: "I think he's been very diplomatic in that, but when I look at his body of work on the pitch and there's no argument that getting to the semi-final and final of a tournament needs to be applauded. But when you say 'give me that X-factor that shows you can win these tournaments', he hasn't got it. He doesn't have an alternative or have the ability to make decisions in a game to change things."
Since departing the England role, Southgate has been linked with Manchester United, though Jordan has maintained that such a move would never materialise. Tonight against Argentina, Jordan's long-standing theory faces its ultimate test.